Analysis of Thresholds in Carbon Emission Changes Based on Spatial Structure and Population Planning: A Case Study of South Korea

Abstract

It was recently reported that the global average surface temperature was the highest since observations began in 1940. The international community rewrites records every year by reevaluating each summer as the ‘hottest summer ever.’ Ultimately, the environmental problem we used to call ‘climate change’ has now reached a situation called ‘climate crisis.’ In order to adapt to and respond to the damage caused by these natural disasters, it is necessary to transition to a carbon-neutral society where net carbon emissions are zero by 2050 (IPCC, 2018). At this time, planners must successfully respond to the climate crisis through efficient spatial planning. Therefore, we must consider various planning factors to realize a carbon-neutral city. In this study, we aim to reveal a vision model for a carbon-neutral city, focusing on urban spatial structure (mononuclear/polynuclear) and population. This study has two research questions. First, if the distribution of carbon emissions varies depending on the spatial structure of mononuclear or multinuclear, which point is it based on? Second, when planning a city, what criteria should the population be planned for in terms of carbon neutrality? In this paper, we first analyze urban polycentricity and carbon emissions distribution through GIS analysis targeting si/gun/gu(city level) in South Korea(Zheng et al., 2023). Using a dynamic panel threshold model, we would like to analyze the threshold at which carbon emissions worsen according to changes in two factors: spatial structure and population. The reason for using the threshold model is that since the degree of effect decreases at the threshold position, it is possible to identify the need for regulation based on that point(Huang and Liao, 2021). As a result of the study, population and urban spatial structure have a significant impact on carbon neutrality, so urban planning and land-use planning that take these into account are necessary. The results of this study are expected to serve as a basis for supporting the feasibility of carbon-neutral cities, which are being discussed for sustainable cities today.