Analyses of age factors of urban structural changes in Kyoto City

Abstract

In the first two decades of the 21st century, urban structural changes in Kyoto City, Japan, were widely recognized, but there are few empirical discussions of the factors. This presentation hypothetically starts discussing the age factors of the younger (15 to 64 years of age) and the older (65 and over) generations in Kyoto City to understand the urban structural changes. The author will point out that the younger generation has been migrating back to the city center while the older generation has moved out or passed away.

Based on this hypothesis, this presentation aims to make some analyses through empirical data using national and municipal statistics. First, through the analysis of the resident registration, the author finds how the younger generations migrated back to the central two wards, the Nakagyo and Shimogyo wards, in these two decades. Second, the author analyzes why lodging houses increased in the Nakagyo and Shimogyo wards after 2016. According to the multiple regression analysis, the factors affecting the increase in lodging houses were identified as the attribute as historic districts, the number of railway stations, the decreased ratio of older adults of sixty-five years of age and over, and the number of low-rise houses. The author understands that the historic districts represent the existence of tourism resources. The number of stations is an indicator of the convenience of the districts. The decrease in older adults means an increase in vacant houses and the resources that can be converted into lodging houses. And the decrease in low-rise houses has the same effect as older adults.

 Thus, the increase of the younger generation and the decrease of older adults in the city center affected on the structural changes of Kyoto City in these twenty years.