Changing perspectives: Assessing regional potentials for green hydrogen infrastructure planning

Abstract

In the process of global sustainable energy transition, green hydrogen is often referred to as a game changing technology. As a carbon-free energy carrier, green hydrogen not only provides storage options for intermittent renewable energy production, but is also considered an integral part of sector coupling. However, the role of green hydrogen in future energy systems remains controversial, due to uncertainties about supply, demand and system integration costs during the ramp-up phase (Dou et al., 2023). This poses major challenges for the development of hydrogen infrastructure, which requires a stable and long-term framework for initial investments.

Several European countries have published strategies to increase green or low-carbon hydrogen production capacity. For example, the German National Hydrogen Strategy doubles the target for the expansion of electrolyser capacity to at least ten gigawatts by 2030 (BMWK, 2023, p. 1). With the expected increase in green hydrogen production and imports, there is a growing need for infrastructure to transport green hydrogen from areas with high renewable potential to demand centres. Transport via existing natural gas pipelines is considered the most cost-effective option for distances of less than 3000 square kilometres (Lipiäinen et al., 2023).

In this context, different planning approaches for the development of a green hydrogen infrastructure can be observed in the hydrogen strategies of the European Union and Germany. While long-term initiatives such as the European Hydrogen Backbone or the German Hydrogen Core Network take on a centralised approach by planning large interconnected transport networks, there is also a need for local hydrogen clusters. Especially in the initial phase, local hydrogen valleys will be developed with decentralised production, consumption and distribution network systems (European Commission, 2020).

The choice of the suitable approach for hydrogen infrastructure planning usually takes into account the potential for green hydrogen supply and demand, as well as the potential for renewable energy production. The regional scale often plays a secondary role in this assessment. The aim of this paper is to develop a concept for assessing hydrogen supply and demand potential from a regional perspective. The concept also takes into account a wider range of influencing factors, such as socio-economic indicators, which will enable holistic sustainable hydrogen infrastructure planning. In addition, it is possible to analyse which regions could be prioritised for infrastructure development in order to accelerate planning.

The assessment concept was applied throughout Germany at the NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) level. A theory-based analysis was conducted to examine relevant indicators. Indices were then constructed and calculated to reflect regional supply and demand potential using multivariate statistical techniques. A subsequent cluster analysis allowed regions to be classified according to specific local circumstances and requirements for green hydrogen infrastructure planning.